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Peak oil production predicted for 2014

MSNBC -- Predicting the end of oil has proven tricky and often controversial, but Kuwaiti scientists now say that global oil production will peak in 2014.

Their work represents an updated version of the famous Hubbert model, which correctly predicted in 1956 that U.S. oil reserves would peak within 20 years. Many researchers have since tried using the model to predict when worldwide oil production might peak.

Some have said production already peaked. One earlier model by Swedish researchers suggested that oil would peak sometime between 2008 and 2018. And other researchers have argued there are decades to go before oil production goes into irreversible decline. The only thing they all agree on: Oil is a finite and very valuable resource.

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Submitted Mar 12, 2010 By: PrepHermit

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DrCashFlow Champion Author Massachusetts Posts:4,775 Points:1,168,555 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 8:45:06 PM Ignore DrCashFlow Report Abuse the year keeps being pushed out.
pliskin Champion Author Syracuse Posts:4,363 Points:1,347,095 Joined:Apr 2005	Message Posted: Mar 13, 2010 5:17:52 PM Ignore pliskin Report Abuse Excellently put, IndplsGuy. You put forth a number of excellent points that many others in this forum should take a look at. Very thorough and informative,thanks....pliskin!
Amtrgas Champion Author Oakland Posts:2,551 Points:1,229,530 Joined:Dec 2007	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 10:50:18 PM Ignore Amtrgas Report Abuse Those who are in charge of the oil, would like us all to believe that the oil is running out. With oil in short supply, they can charge us more.
IndplsGuy Rookie Author Indianapolis Posts:30 Points:205,930 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 7:41:33 PM Ignore IndplsGuy Report Abuse We people have power only if we know the truth and work together to solve a common problem. And in this case, everyone is very tired of being ripped off.
DerHahn Champion Author Illinois Posts:11,145 Points:1,653,000 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 7:37:06 PM Ignore DerHahn Report Abuse and the oil companies will make sure everyone knows this so they can push prices even higher
IndplsGuy Rookie Author Indianapolis Posts:30 Points:205,930 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 7:17:30 PM Ignore IndplsGuy Report Abuse The Myth Of Peak Oil Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones \| October 12 2005 (Short Quote from article with full text & color photos at website listed at end.) Peak oil is a scam designed to create artificial scarcity and jack up prices while giving the state an excuse to invade our lives and order us to sacrifice our hard-earned living standards. Publicly available Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and Club of Rome strategy manuals from 30 years ago say that a global government needs to control the world population through neo-feudalism by creating artificial scarcity. Now that the social architects have de-industrialized the United States, they are going to blame our economic disintegration on lack of energy supplies. Globalization is all about consolidation. Now that the world economy has become so centralized through the Globalists operations, they are going to continue to consolidate and blame it on the West's "evil" overconsumption of fossil fuels, while at the same time blocking the development and integration of renewable clean technologies. In other words, Peak oil is a scam to create artificial scarcity and drive prices up. Meanwhile, alternative fuel technologies which have been around for decades are intentionally suppressed. Peak oil is a theory advanced by the elite, by the oil industry, by the very people that you would think peak oil would harm, unless it was a cover for another agenda. Which from the evidence of artificial scarcity being deliberately created, the reasons for doing so and who benefits, it’s clear that peak oil is a myth and it should be exposed for what it is. Another excuse for the Globalists to seize more control over our lives and sacrifice more American sovereignty in the meantime. Full article text and with color photographs are shown on the following website: http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm
IndplsGuy Rookie Author Indianapolis Posts:30 Points:205,930 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 7:02:24 PM Ignore IndplsGuy Report Abuse If you are interested in leaarning more about the truth of the "Peak Oil Lie", go to Google and enter "Peak Oil Lies" you will be amazed at what you learn. Then tell everyone you know and help them learn also about the lies we have been told. It is up to all of us Americans to fix this problem caused by these evil politicians and greedy bankers.
lgwhitlock Champion Author Chico Posts:5,125 Points:1,223,370 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 6:50:26 PM Ignore lgwhitlock Report Abuse While oil in a finite resource it can be replenished over long periods of time. I suspect we could find ways to artificially make more however it would be better to find viable long term alternatives that will take us long into the future...
IndplsGuy Rookie Author Indianapolis Posts:30 Points:205,930 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 6:23:06 PM Ignore IndplsGuy Report Abuse I have a family relative working for a major oil company that is in charge of three major oil pipelines across the entire U.S. and I have been in their corporate offices several times to see first hand exactly what is going on and personally know a number of the people who work in pipeline oil distribution. So I know whereof I speak. Just so you know... They were under Federal Court Order to shut down the oil pipeline distribution system in stages to cause the 1976 oil shortage and if they failed to comply with the staged shut-down, they were personally subject to Federal Arrest Warrents for failure to comply with the U.S. Dept. of Energy shut-down mandate of our oil distrubutation system. They were paying huge charges of several hundred thousand dollars per day after a grace period to unload the oil tankers in the Gulf of Mexico. The only problem was, their Refinery Oil Storage Tanks were FULL as well as all storage tanks located across the USA as well as their company owned gas stations. And at the same time, the U.S. Public was being lied to from the government saying there was an "Oil Shortage".
copperhead8 Champion Author Boston Posts:14,843 Points:2,355,225 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 6:17:11 PM Ignore copperhead8 Report Abuse Can they really predict things or are they just guesses?? [Edited by: copperhead8 at 3/12/2010 8:18:33 PM EST]
IndplsGuy Rookie Author Indianapolis Posts:30 Points:205,930 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 6:14:35 PM Ignore IndplsGuy Report Abuse pgriff1 are you singing "on key" or "off key" causing everyone else problems?
pgriff1 Champion Author New Orleans Posts:4,287 Points:1,586,185 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 6:05:23 PM Ignore pgriff1 Report Abuse I've heard that song sung many times since 1973
rsm315 Champion Author Detroit Posts:1,174 Points:310,035 Joined:Dec 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 6:04:18 PM Ignore rsm315 Report Abuse wow indplsGuy
CarrottopNe Champion Author Lincoln Posts:1,025 Points:368,415 Joined:Jan 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:58:44 PM Ignore CarrottopNe Report Abuse IndplsGuy, you sure did your homework. Everyone should read what IndplsGuy posted.
FBI2991 Champion Author Michigan Posts:2,157 Points:688,110 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:56:59 PM Ignore FBI2991 Report Abuse Have I seen this before?
IndplsGuy Rookie Author Indianapolis Posts:30 Points:205,930 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:55:24 PM Ignore IndplsGuy Report Abuse From Various Sources... Peak Oil Is A Big Lie (The real problem is the politicians pushing for the One World Order.) February 25, 2009 The U.S. Geological Service issued a report in April 2008 that only scientists and oil men knew was coming, but man was it big. It was a revised report (hadn't been updated since 1995) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota, western South Dakota, and extreme eastern Montana... The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska 's Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable...at $107 a barrel, we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion. "When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor. They had no idea." says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst. "This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years." reports, The Pittsburgh Post Gazette. It's a formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the 'Bakken.' And it stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada. For years, U. S. oil exploration has been considered a dead end. Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago. However, a recent technological breakthrough [2008] has opened up the Bakken's massive reserves.... and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet crude oil, those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL! That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 41 years straight. 2. And if THAT didn't throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from two YEARS ago! U.S. Oil Discovery - Largest Reserve In The World! Stansberry Report Online April 20, 2006 Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world. It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction. In three and a half years of high oil prices none has been extracted. With this motherload of oil, the largest in the world located right here in the USA, why are we still fighting over off-shore drilling? They reported this stunning news: We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth. Here are the official estimates: 8 times as much oil as Saudi Arabia 18 times as much oil as Iraq 21 times as much oil as Kuwait 22 times as much oil as Iran 500 times as much oil as Yemen and it's all right here in the Western United States. HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this? Because the environmentalists and others have blocked all efforts to help America become independent of foreign oil! Again, we are letting a small group of people dictate our lives and our economy....WHY? James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East - more than 2 TRILLION barrels untapped. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post. Don't think 'OPEC' will drop its price - even with this find? Think again! It's all about the competitive marketplace, - it has to. Think OPEC just might be funding the environmentalists? Got your attention/ire up yet? Hope so. Now, while you're thinking about it .... and hopefully angry, do this: 3. Pass this along. If you don't take a little time to do this, then you should stifle yourself the next time you want to complain about gas prices .. because by doing NOTHING, you've forfeited your right to complain. Want the hard data? Go here... http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1911 http://www.rense.com/general85/peak.htm +++++++++++++ Russians laugh at our crazy peak oil theories as they explore, and find, the bounty in the bowels of the Earth. Russia's reserves have been climbing steadily -- according to BP's annual survey, they stood at 45 billion barrels in 2001, 69 billion barrels in 2004, and 80 billion barrels of late, making Russia an oil super power that this year produced more oil than Saudi Arabia. Some oil auditing firms estimate Russia's reserves at up to 200 billion barrels. Despite Russia's success in exploration, most of those in the west who have known about the Russian-Ukrainian theories have dismissed them as beyond the Pale. This week, the Russian Pale can be found awfully close to home. In a study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers from the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Sweden and the Geophysical Laboratory of the Carnegie Institution of Washington joined colleagues at the Lomonosov Moscow State Academy of Fine Chemical Technology in publishing evidence that hydrocarbons can be produced 40 to 95 miles beneath the surface of the Earth. At these depths -- in what's known as Earth's Upper Mantle -- high temperatures and intense pressures combine to generate hydrocarbons. The hydrocarbons then migrate toward the surface of the Earth through fissures in the Earth's crust, sometimes feeding existing pools of oil, sometimes creating entirely new ones. In a study published in Nature Geoscience, researchers from the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) in Sweden and the Geophysical Laboratory of the Carnegie Institution of Washington joined colleagues at the Lomonosov Moscow State Academy of Fine Chemical Technology in publishing evidence that hydrocarbons can be produced 40 to 95 miles beneath the surface of the Earth. At these depths -- in what's known as Earth's Upper Mantle -- high temperatures and intense pressures combine to generate hydrocarbons. The hydrocarbons then migrate toward the surface of the Earth through fissures in the Earth's crust, sometimes feeding existing pools of oil, sometimes creating entirely new ones. According to Sweden's Royal Institute, "fossils of animals and plants are not necessary to generate raw oil and natural gas. This result is extremely radical as it means that it will be much easier to find these energy sources and that they may be located all over the world." Quoted from the article: Endless Oil - There IS NO Shortage! By Lawrence Solomon
knot2swift Champion Author Calgary Posts:2,433 Points:413,335 Joined:Nov 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:50:37 PM Ignore knot2swift Report Abuse We may have peaked already. Mexico is hard up for investment these days because of wells running dry. All that's left is offshore for them. I doubt very much Saudi Arabia has as much as they claim as well. I think the near future is Natural Gas then Shale Oil and Coal (If we can get it burn cleanly. China is working on the latter). Beyond that there is Nuclear Fusion Power. I don't see a need to panic and sent oil prices to new highs.
WilW Champion Author Atlanta Posts:9,859 Points:2,210,785 Joined:Aug 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:50:08 PM Ignore WilW Report Abuse OK..but I want cheaper gas NOW!!
ThatHunt Champion Author Dallas Posts:4,487 Points:1,627,290 Joined:Jul 2006	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:49:52 PM Ignore ThatHunt Report Abuse Read about the Hubbard model. Fascinating and right on the money.
brus282 Champion Author North Carolina Posts:4,659 Points:953,210 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:48:55 PM Ignore brus282 Report Abuse if anyone could see the real future, you would use it to win a lottery and tell the rest of the world where to go!
mrbeagle Rookie Author Michigan Posts:5 Points:21,155 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:45:20 PM Ignore mrbeagle Report Abuse My point exactly 96sci you caught it thank you . There is one who knows when the end is here and that is God ! Remember 2000 !
Ken2OD Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:6,673 Points:1,506,000 Joined:Dec 2005	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:45:15 PM Ignore Ken2OD Report Abuse How can they predict and calculate GREED?
lembs All-Star Author San Francisco Posts:905 Points:861,350 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:43:41 PM Ignore lembs Report Abuse research should move ahead for alternative energy
Night Owl Champion Author Toronto Posts:5,260 Points:1,332,750 Joined:Jul 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:41:45 PM Ignore Night Owl Report Abuse We should be using more energy alternatives.
96sc1 Champion Author El Paso Posts:7,440 Points:1,142,330 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:36:23 PM Ignore 96sc1 Report Abuse It's not as hard as predicting the end of the world, and folks do that every day.
mrbeagle Rookie Author Michigan Posts:5 Points:21,155 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:35:17 PM Ignore mrbeagle Report Abuse It doesn't matter if we run out of oil or when ! The end of the world happens on Dec 2012 ! Its already begun look at the earthquakes ! Lately all over 6.0 .It has started !
jscdig Champion Author Maine Posts:6,844 Points:674,145 Joined:Apr 2004	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:32:58 PM Ignore jscdig Report Abuse Of course we'll hit peak oil if we don't keep looking for more. There's plenty out there that we haven't tapped into.
Cyberkedi Champion Author Atlanta Posts:11,961 Points:2,030,410 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:31:28 PM Ignore Cyberkedi Report Abuse We shouldn't have gone and p***ed off the Canadians!
swrestler Champion Author Grand Rapids Posts:3,780 Points:1,104,500 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:30:43 PM Ignore swrestler Report Abuse I see higher prices too.....
DrivingFool2 Champion Author Appleton Posts:6,172 Points:1,144,115 Joined:Apr 2005	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:30:21 PM Ignore DrivingFool2 Report Abuse Only if OPEC says so
RoLleRKoaSTeR All-Star Author Louisville Posts:792 Points:281,430 Joined:Feb 2006	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:28:50 PM Ignore RoLleRKoaSTeR Report Abuse From two days ago. Old news is soo exciting //saw it on Fark yesterday ///slashies :) [Edited by: RoLleRKoaSTeR at 3/12/2010 7:29:23 PM EST]
MacSpot All-Star Author Virginia Posts:774 Points:814,895 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:27:06 PM Ignore MacSpot Report Abuse You'll notice that people are discussing WHEN oil production will decline, and not IF. At some point we'll need to find a replacement, and it is better to start planning for that now, rather than hope that a little more drilling might make the problem go away. Oil reserves will eventually be gone.
divebomber Champion Author Nebraska Posts:3,709 Points:1,344,340 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:23:11 PM Ignore divebomber Report Abuse I wish we would drill more in the U.S.:(
Daveyfudd All-Star Author Jackson Posts:873 Points:257,525 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:21:48 PM Ignore Daveyfudd Report Abuse My crystal ball says higher prices!
Rednix Champion Author Miami Posts:3,884 Points:813,995 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:19:26 PM Ignore Rednix Report Abuse With the new ways of drilling for oil who knows if this is even accurate.
pliskin Champion Author Syracuse Posts:4,363 Points:1,347,095 Joined:Apr 2005	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:15:49 PM Ignore pliskin Report Abuse As it was said, it's all just a gamble! Nothing could be anything more than speculation at this point especially with the condition of the world's markets today.
YLHandyman Champion Author Orange County Posts:5,008 Points:930,140 Joined:Feb 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:14:29 PM Ignore YLHandyman Report Abuse Maybe we will have an alternate before oil runs out.
WillyG Champion Author Cincinnati Posts:2,186 Points:610,500 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:08:41 PM Ignore WillyG Report Abuse It's just a gamble. Anybody's guess . . .
madison8359 Champion Author Cleveland Posts:5,731 Points:1,126,665 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:05:30 PM Ignore madison8359 Report Abuse More speculation!
nightworker998 Champion Author Maryland Posts:1,179 Points:507,215 Joined:Mar 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:05:18 PM Ignore nightworker998 Report Abuse Finite yes, valuable yes, but in need of replacement definetly
toyrunner300 Champion Author Calgary Posts:3,219 Points:1,214,835 Joined:Jan 2007	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 5:01:33 PM Ignore toyrunner300 Report Abuse What peak oil? Maximum production or less people buying?
PDQBlues Champion Author San Diego Posts:4,706 Points:980,350 Joined:Jan 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:59:38 PM Ignore PDQBlues Report Abuse Blah blah blah... just another forgettable prediction.
vegaland Champion Author Houston Posts:2,403 Points:501,795 Joined:May 2006	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:59:12 PM Ignore vegaland Report Abuse If you keep predicting peak oil, you'll be right someday.
Romey08 Champion Author Virginia Posts:4,232 Points:1,024,250 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:52:03 PM Ignore Romey08 Report Abuse don't believe it. every 25 yrs or so, some expert cries oil shortage.
SSchmidty Champion Author Illinois Posts:6,953 Points:1,323,635 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:49:02 PM Ignore SSchmidty Report Abuse Haha, well try the Saudi Arian Oil ministry rep statement to the press in 2008 in Australia ... 2012!!!
bills55 Champion Author San Diego Posts:2,207 Points:513,955 Joined:Sep 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:43:21 PM Ignore bills55 Report Abuse Is that the truth or are they trying to jack up prices.
E-Squirrel Champion Author Orange County Posts:2,405 Points:640,880 Joined:Feb 2005	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:42:10 PM Ignore E-Squirrel Report Abuse fire@53 predicts: "Once we get rid of the progressives in congress we will be able to drill here." Well, one certainly hopes so, but even then, we will start out years behind other countries on ramping up domestic production, sadly.
PnnyPnchr Champion Author Toronto Posts:15,569 Points:2,315,730 Joined:Dec 2002	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:32:21 PM Ignore PnnyPnchr Report Abuse I think it somewhat peaked in 2008 when the prices went berserk. Demand has slid since then, but it will pick up as the economy recovers. And then the cycle will repeat. It's a lot easier to believe in the conspiracy theory and ignore the truth.
Cheymike Champion Author Wyoming Posts:1,456 Points:214,320 Joined:Sep 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:30:44 PM Ignore Cheymike Report Abuse More food for the mushrooms... There is so much disagreement on this that there is no way to truly know when "peak oil" will be reached. If we started drilling our own oil, we could produce more for the next century than has EVER been produced. Just keep telling the lies so the oil execs and shieks can get richer. Sure we'll believe 'em. NOT!
georgeo Champion Author California Posts:4,172 Points:178,915 Joined:May 2009	Message Posted: Mar 12, 2010 4:29:11 PM Ignore georgeo Report Abuse There they go again. Have to have bad news at least once a day to keep price up.